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6/12/2008 Scenario PlanningScenario planning or easier term would be forecasting or maybe predicting. Forecasting has been one of the important techniques that we are using everyday without realizing them. For example, we forecast the oil price will be still going up on the next month, there would be heavy rain in this few weeks in the early morning, the people who goes for gambling will predict themselves would win today but it never happen, and etc...
Scenario planning is more of an art than a science but it will prepare your firm (if you are the company's CEO) better if the unthinkable should occur. However, it still would benefits the individual if you able to use them wisely.
Here are some true examples of forecasts that have been made in the computer industry. I picked the computer industry as they are advancing faster in the technology factor.
As you can see, the degree of predictability varies from industry to industry, but in those where fast changing factors such as fashion and technology are crucial to success the period of uncertainty will be longer. Unfortunately, most of the things in our life are involved with fashion and technology. This is where it separates the genius from the others. Agree? So, what type of scenario planning or forecasting is in your mind now? TrackbacksThe trackback URL for this entry is: http://chenhing.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!F2B9753C0AC3E9A1!246.trak Weblogs that reference this entry
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